Back in first: Phillies edge Marlins to grab top spot in NL East

Baseball Betting Lines

09/07/2010 - Philadelphia, PA (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - Placido Polanco's eighth-inning two-out RBI single was the difference, as Philadelphia nipped Florida, 8-7, in the third installment of a four-game series.

The victory, coupled with Atlanta's loss at Pittsburgh, lofted the two-time defending NL champs into first place in the NL East by a half-game over the Braves. The Phillies hadn't seen the top of the division since May 30.

Raul Ibanez finished 3-for-4 with a homer and drove in three runs, while Shane Victorino and Ryan Howard also added solo shots for the Phillies, who have taken seven of their last nine overall.

Ryan Madson (5-2) allowed Florida's tying run to score in the top of the eighth, but picked up the win by getting the final four outs.

Logan Morrison doubled twice and knocked in a run for the Marlins, who have dropped two in a row since taking the opener of a day-night doubleheader on Monday. Mike Stanton finished 2-for-4 with a solo shot in defeat.

Jose Veras (2-2) was charged with the loss after allowing the game-winning hit.

In the eighth, Stanton's solo homer off Jose Contreras made it 7-5, then Brad Davis doubled with one out. With two outs, Emilio Bonifacio singled, and Davis scored on a Jayson Werth throwing error, which sent Bonifacio to second. J.C. Romero came in only to balk Bonifacio to third, then walked Morrison, paving the way for Madson. The lanky right-hander uncorked a wild pitch to score Bonifacio with the tying run before fanning Hanley Ramirez.

Veras gave up a two-out single to Victorino, who stole second before coming in when Polanco punched a hit through the right side. Chase Utley walked and Howard barely missed a three-run shot that was caught in front of the center- field wall, but the Phils snagged a one-run edge, 8-7.

Madson fanned Dan Uggla swinging and got Gaby Sanchez on a flyout to left before walking Stanton. Wes Helms then went down swinging on a high and outside 1-2 fastball to end the game.

The Phils broke through in the second, as Howard doubled and scored on a Jimmy Rollins base hit.

Florida came back with two in the third as Bonifacio singled and went to second on Blanton's error on a Morrison grounder. After a groundout moved up both runners, Uggla plated one with a grounder to first and Sanchez added an RBI single.

The Fish tacked on one more in the fourth as Cameron Maybin started with a triple and scored on a Davis groundout.

Ibanez reached the seats in left-center with one out in the home half, then the home team picked up three in the fifth to move ahead 5-3 on a Victorino leadoff homer, a two-out solo shot from Howard and an RBI hit by Ibanez.

Florida trimmed its deficit to 5-4 in the seventh. Bonifacio walked with one out then Morrison drove him in with a double off Antonio Bastardo. Morrison advanced to third on a wild throw home, but Chad Durbin cleaned up the mess by getting Ramirez on a foul out and Sanchez on a flyout.

Polanco singled to start the home half, moved to second on a passed ball, reached third on a groundout and scored after an intentional walk to Howard on a Rollins sac fly. Ibanez followed with an RBI triple, and the home team had what appeared to be a safe 7-4 edge.

Game Notes

Philadelphia has won nine of 14 from Florida this season and evened their record against the Marlins at home to 4-4...Late Monday, the Phillies recalled outfielder John Mayberry, Jr. from Triple-A Lehigh Valley...The Phils also scratched outfielder Domonic Brown with a quadriceps injury...Bonifacio ended with three hits and scored three runs...Polanco had three hits, and Howard crossed the plate three times...Philly starter Joe Blanton allowed six hits and four runs over 6 1/3 innings, and Florida hurler Chris Volstad yielded five runs and nine hits over five full frames.

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Horse Betting

(This is an update of a sportsbook for the May 4th issue of ESPN The Magazine).

The Kentucky Derby's post-position draw happened on Wednesday. And, as is always the case, shortly afterwards, a buzz raced around Churchill Downs. It was a low rumble at first, nothing that the squares in the mint julep crowd pick up right away. But by the time the sun set over the twin spires, the chatter was impossible to ignore. Everyone -- sharps, trainers, owners -- was talking about one thing: the wise guy horse, the pre-draw long shot us mopes didn't have on our radar until it was too late.

"You think you're hearing the scoop," says handicapper Lane Gold. "Then you get to the window, the odds are short, and you missed it."

Recognizing a wise-guy horse early is as hard as picking a Derby bonnet. That's because handicappers don't like hype (see ya, I Want Revenge). They want Thoroughbreds who look good losing prep races like the Santa Anita Derby. They eye horses who ate up the field after starting wide or made an easy transition from synthetic tracks to dirt. They look for ponies who showed muscle gain race to race and those who ran hard after several weeks' rest.

"A wise guy," says John Avello, a bookmaker at Wynn Las Vegas, "looks for a horse who can improve."

When I first wrote Horse Betting for The Mag, which I turned in a three weeks before Wednesday's draw, I predicted these three horses had wise guy potential:

CHOCOLATE CANDY (15-1 in mid-April, currently 20-1 according to Avello): His second-place finish at Santa Anita, following a seven-week layoff, proved two things: He can run after resting, and -- by losing a high-profile prep race -- he wouldn't be overhyped.

DESERT PARTY (15-1; 15-1): He was upset in the UAE Derby by a horse he had beaten twice. The public remembers his loss, but the wise guys his wins.

PIONEEROF THE NILE (8-1; 4-1): The big favorite at Santa Anita struggled to win, so he initially got less hype than Quality Road and I Want Revenge.

You may have noticed that the odds on Pioneerof the Nile have been cut in half, from 8-1 to 4-1. Which means the wise guys took a shine to him long before the post-position draw. But, to be honest, this is one of those years with four elite horses getting everyone's attention, squares and sharps alike.

"You're not gonna get a lot of chatter about a horse that isn't in that group, which includes Pioneer, I Want Revenge, Dunkirk and Friesan Fire," Avello told me Wednesday. "We don't have a group of horses behind those top four who look like real legit contenders."

Come Derby week, the final two elements in picking a wise guy horse are how he's working out and what gate he's coming out of.

(By the way, picking a Preakness favorite is a whole different bale of hay, partially based on how horses finish in the Derby. You can see my analysis of who has the best shot at Pimlico on Insider Sunday morning.)

Well, early in the week I Want Revenge, Pioneerof the Nile and Friesan Fire were working out better than anyone. Some thought Friesan Fire, currently 6-1, might have run too fast, burning a five-furlong run in :57 4/5. "When you are running that fast you have the sense that it took something out of him," says Gold. "The Derby is longer than any horse has run, and if they need that extra surge you worry they won't have it because they burned it in the workout."

But, Gold points out, Friesan Fire's trainer is Larry Jones, Two years ago his horse Hard Spun did a five-eighths workout in :57 3/5 and then went on to finish second, behind Street Sense, in the Derby. "Every trainer has different methods," says Gold. "And clearly he knows what he's doing."

Now, as for starting position, Gold says to remember this: Churchill Downs traditionally has 14 starting gates. For the Derby, it brings out auxiliary gates and between the original 14th gate and the new 15th gate, there is a little more space than there is between gates 1-14. "That 15 position will give you a precious second or two to sort out what's happening to your inside," says Gold. "Sixteen is also okay because you can follow the horse in front of you."

Dunkirk, one of the race favorites, is coming out of gate 15. In 16 is Baffert's Pioneerof the Nile. I Want Revenge drew 13, where Smarty Jones won from in 2004, and Friesan Fire picked the sixth position. "He doesn't have a lot of speed to the inside of him," says Gold. "So he will get a clear shot to be near the front."

All the jibber-jabber means this: Pioneerof the Nile has leapfrogged from 8-1 to being the second favorite, along with Dunkirk, behind I Want Revenge. Meanwhile, Friesan Fire, with a good trainer, a strong week of training and a decent post position, is still at 6-1. "By Saturday, it's possible he could go from fourth to the favorite," says Gold.

In other words, meet Friesan Fire, your 2009 wise guy horse.

"Now," says Avello, "it's time for action."

To visit this horse betting site go to MySportsbook.com for all your horse racing betting needs.